Article Sidebar

Download
View Full Article XML S.I.S
Statistic
Read Counter : 151 Download : 62

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Main Article Content

Abstract

As the scientific consensus concerning global climate change has increased in recent decades, research on the potential impacts of climate change on water resources has been given high importance. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have fully evaluated the potential implications of climate change on their water resource systems. The Volta River is one of the major rivers in Africa covering six riparian countries (mainly Ghana and Burkina Faso). It is a principal water source for approximately 24 million people in the region. The catchment is primarily agricultural providing food supplies to rural areas, demonstrating the classic water, food, and energy nexus. In this study, an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) was applied to the whole Volta River system to simulate flow in the rivers and at the outlet of the artificial Lake Volta. High-resolution climate scenarios downscaled from three different Global Climate Models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES and CanESM2) as part of the CORDEX Africa project, were used to drive the INCA model and to assess changes in flow by 2050s and 2090s under the high climate forcing scenario RCP8.5. The results showed that peak flows during the monsoon months could increase into the future, although the downscaled HadGEM2-ES scenario indicated a decreasing trend by 2090s. The duration of high flow could become longer compared to the recent condition. In addition, we considered three different socio-economic scenarios for the Volta River Basin, which make different assumptions about population growth and increases in the area of agricultural land use. However, the effects of changing socio-economic conditions on flow are minor compared to the climate change impact. Under the combined impact of climate change (CNRM-CM5) and medium+ socio-economic changes, the extremely high flow (Q5) of the Black Volta River is projected to increase by 11% and 36% by the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. Lake Volta outflow would increase +1% and +5% in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. These results provide valuable information assisting future water resource development and adaptive strategies in the Volta Basin.

Keywords

river flow climate impacts modeling water resources Ghana Africa

Article Details

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite
Appeaning Addo, K., & Ali Dayinday, S. (2023). Forecasting Future Volta River System Discharges: Evaluating the Influence of Climate Change and Socio-Economic Shifts. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies and Innovative Research, 11(4), 1616–1637. https://doi.org/10.53075/Ijmsirq/0984324234234
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

References

  1. Allison, M.A., Nittrouer, C.A., Ogston, A.S., Mullarney, J.C., and Nguyen, T.T., 2017, Sedimentation and Survival of the Mekong Delta A Case Study of Decreased Sediment Supply and Accelerating Rates of Relative Sea Level Rise: Oceanography, 30, 98-109.
  2. Amisigo, B.A., 2006, Modelling river flows in the Volta Basin of West Africa: A data-driven framework: Delft, the Netherlands: Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, TUDelft University of Technology.
  3. Amisigo, B.A., McCluskey, A., and Swanson, R., 2015, Modeling impact of climate change on water resources and agricultural demand in the Volta Basin and other basin systems in Ghana: Sustainability, 7, 6957-6975.
  4. Andah, W., van de Giesen, N., Huber-Lee, A., and Biney, C.A., 2004, Can we maintain food production without losing hydropower? The Volta Basin (West Africa). In: Climate change in contrasting river basins: Adaption for water, food and environment, (eds.), Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Droogers, P. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing. pP. 181-194.
  5. Anthony, E.J., Almar, R., and Aagaard, T., 2016, Recent shoreline changes in the Volta River delta, West Africa: the roles of natural processes and human impacts: African Journal of Aquatic Science, 41, 81-87.
  6. Awotwi, A., Yeboah, F., and Kumi, M., 2015, Assessing the impact of land cover changes on water balance components of White Volta Basin in West Africa: Water and Environment Journal, 29, 259-267.
  7. Barry, B., Obuobie, E., Andreini, M., Andah, W., and Pluquet, M., 2005, The Volta River Basin synthesis. Comparative study of river basin development and management. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture: Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI).
  8. Bussi, G., Janes, V., Whitehead, P.G., Dadson, S.J., and Holman, I.P., 2017, Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes: Science of the Total Environment, v. 590, p. 818-831.
  9. Crossman, J., Futter, M.N., Oni, S.K., Whitehead, P.G., Jin, L., Butterfield, D., Baulch, H.M., and Dillon, P.J., 2013, Impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality: Future proofing management strategies in the Lake Simcoe watershed, Canada: Journal of Great Lakes Research, 39, 19-32.
  10. Dickson, K.B., and Benneh, G., 1988, A new geography of Ghana: Longman Group UK Limited. Longman House, Burnt Mill, Harlow, Essex, England.
  11. Ericson, J.P., Vorosmarty, C.J., Dingman, S.L., Ward, L.G., and Meybeck, M., 2006, Effective sea-level rise and deltas: Causes of change and human dimension implications: Global and Planetary Change, 50, 63-82.
  12. Fang, G.H., Yang, J., Chen, Y.N., and Zammit, C., 2015, Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China: Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., v. 19, p. 2547-2559.
  13. Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Cosby, B.J., Dillon, P.J., Wade, A.J., and Whitehead, P.G., 2007, Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments: Water Resources Research, 43, W02424, doi:10.1029/2006WR004960.
  14. Futter, M.N., Erlandsson, M.A., Butterfield, D., Whitehead, P.G., Oni, S.K., and Wade, A.J., 2014, PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 18, p. 855-873.
  15. Futter, M.N., Whitehead, P.G., Sarkar, S., Rodda, H., and Crossman, J., 2015, Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 17, p. 1070-1081.
  16. Gu, C.L., Hu, L.Q., Zhang, X.M., Wang, X.D., and Guo, J., 2011, Climate change and urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta: Habitat International, v. 35, p. 544-552.
  17. Gyau-Boakye, P., and Tumbulto, J.W., 2000, The Volta Lake and Declining Rainfall and Streamflows in the Volta River Basin: Environment, Development and Sustainability, v. 2, p. 1-11.
  18. Hill, C., Nicholls, R.J., Whitehead, P.W., Dunn, F., Haque, A., Appeaning Addo, K., and Raju, P.V., 2018, Delineating Climate Change Impacts on Biophysical Conditions in Populous Deltas Science of the Total Environment.
  19. Hoang, L.P., Lauri, H., Kummu, M., Koponen, J., van Vliet, M.T.H., Supit, I., Leemans, R., Kabat, P., and Ludwig, F., 2016, Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, p. 3027-3041.
  20. IPCC, 2013a, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections: [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M. Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J. Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  21. IPCC, 2013b, Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  22. IPCC, 2014, Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Cambridge, Cambridge Univ Press.
  23. Jackson-Blake, L.A., Wade, A.J., Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Couture, R.M., Cox, B.A., Crossman, J., Ekholm, P., Halliday, S.J., Jin, L., Lawrence, D.S.L., Lepisto, A., Lin, Y., Rankinen, K., and Whitehead, P.G., 2016, The INtegrated CAtchment model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P): Description and demonstration of new model structure and equations: Environmental Modelling & Software, v. 83, p. 356-386.
  24. Janes, T., McGrath, F., Macadam, I., and Jones, R., 2018, High-resolution climate projections for South Asia to inform climate impacts and adaptation studies in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Mahanadi deltas: Science of the Total Environment.
  25. Jin, L., Whitehead, P., Siegel, D.I., and Findlay, S., 2011, Salting our landscape: An integrated catchment model using readily accessible data to assess emerging road salt contamination to streams: Environmental Pollution, v. 159, p. 1257-1265.
  26. Jin, L., Whitehead, P.G., Baulch, H.M., Dillon, P.J., Butterfield, D., Oni, S.K., Futter, M.N., Crossman, J., and O'Connor, E.M., 2013, Modelling phosphorus in Lake Simcoe and its subcatchments: scenario analysis to assess alternative management strategies: Inland Waters, v. 3, p. 207-220.
  27. Jin, L., Whitehead, P.G., Futter, M.N., and Lu, Z.L., 2012, Modelling the impacts of climate change on flow and nitrate in the River Thames: assessing potential adaptation strategies: Hydrology Research, v. 43, p. 902-916.
  28. Jin, L., Whitehead, P.G., Sarkar, S., Sinha, R., Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Caesar, J., and Crossman, J., 2015, Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 17, p. 1098-1110.
  29. Kasei, R., Diekkruger, B., and Leemhuis, C., 2010, Drought frequency in the Volta Basin of West Africa: Sustainability Science, v. 5, p. 89-97.
  30. Kay, S., Caesar, J., Wolf, J., Bricheno, L., Nicholls, R.J., Islam, A., Haque, A., Pardaens, A., and Lowe, J.A., 2015, Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 17, p. 1311-1322.
  31. Kebede, A.S., Nicholls, R.J., Allan, A., Arto, I., Cazcarro, I., Fernandes, J.A., Hill, C.T., Hutton, C.W., Kay, S., Lazar, A.N., Macadam, I., Palmer, M., Suckall, N., Tompkins, E.L., Vincent, K., and Whitehead, P.G., 2018, Applying the Global RCP–SSP–SPA Scenario Framework at Sub-National Scale: A Multi-Scale and Participatory Scenario Approach: Science of the Total Environment, v. DECCMA Special Issue.
  32. Lacombe, G., McCartney, M., and Forkuor, G., 2012, Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960-2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels: Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, v. 57, p. 1594-1609.
  33. Lazar, A.N., Butterfield, D., Futter, M.N., Rankinen, K., Thouvenot-Korppoo, M., Jarritt, N., Lawrence, D.S.L., Wade, A.J., and Whitehead, P.G., 2010, An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries: Science of the Total Environment, v. 408, p. 2555-2566.
  34. Lu, Q., Whitehead, P.G., Bussi, G., Futter, M.N., and Nizzetto, L., 2017, Modelling metaldehyde in catchments: a River Thames case-study: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 19, p. 586-595.
  35. McCartney, M., Forkuor, G., Sood, A., Amisigo, B., Hattermann, F., and Muthuwatta, L., 2012, The water resource implications of changing climate in the Volta River Basin: Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 40p. (IWMI Research Report 146). .
  36. Mul, M., Obuobie, E., Appoh, R., Kankam-Yeboah, K., Bekoe-Obeng, E., Amisigo, B., Logah, F.Y., Ghansah, B., and McCartney, M., 2015, Water resources assessment of the Volta River Basin: Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 78p. (IWMI Working Paper 166). doi: 10.5337/2015.220.
  37. Nepal, S., and Shrestha, A.B., 2015, Impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins: a review of the literature: International Journal of Water Resources Development, v. 31, p. 201-218.
  38. Nicholls, R.J., A.S., K., Allan, A., Arto, I., Cazcarro, I., Fernandes, J.A., Hill, C.T., Hutton, C.W., Kay, S., Lawn, J., Lázár, A.N., Macadam, I., Whitehead, P.G., and al, e., 2017, The DECCMA scenario framework: A multi-scale and participatory approach to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: DECCMA Working Paper, Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation, IDRC Project Number 107642. Available online at: www.deccma.com, date accessed
  39. Nicholls, R.J., Hutton, C.W., Lazar, A.N., Allan, A., Adger, W.N., Adams, H., Wolf, J., Rahman, M., and Salehin, M., 2016, Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh: Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, v. 183, p. 370-381.
  40. Nicholson, S., 2005, On the question of the "recovery" of the rains in the West African Sahel: Journal of Arid Environments, v. 63, p. 615-641.
  41. Oguntunde, P.G., 2004, Evapotranspiration and complementarity relations in the water balance of the Volta basin: Field measurements and GIS-based regional estimates: Ecology and Development Series No. 22. Göttingen, Germany: Cuvillier Verlag. 169p.
  42. Owusu, K., Waylen, P., and Qiu, Y., 2008, Changing rainfall inputs in the Volta basin: implications for water sharing in Ghana: GeoJournal, v. 71, p. 201-210.
  43. Pushpalatha, R., Perrin, C., Le Moine, N., and Andreassian, V., 2012, A review of efficiency criteria suitable for evaluating low-flow simulations: Journal of Hydrology, v. 420, p. 171-182.
  44. Rankinen, K., Granlund, K., Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Wade, A.J., Skeffington, R., Arvola, L., Veijalainen, N., Huttunen, I., and Lepisto, A., 2013, Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model: Boreal Environment Research, v. 18, p. 373-386.
  45. Sadoff, C., and Muller, M., 2009, Water management, water security and climate change adaptation: Early impacts and essential responses. : TEC Background Papers No.14.
  46. Smajgl, A., Toan, T.Q., Nhan, D.K., Ward, J., Trung, N.H., Tri, L.Q., Tri, V.P.D., and Vu, P.T., 2015, Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta: Nature Climate Change, v. 5, p. 167-U167.
  47. Syvitski, J.P.M., Vorosmarty, C.J., Kettner, A.J., and Green, P., 2005, Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean: Science, v. 308, p. 376-380.
  48. Van de Giesen, N., Andreini, M., Van Edig, A., and Vlek, P., 2001, Competition for water resources of the Volta basin, in Schumann, A.H., Acreman, M.C., Davis, R., Marino, M.A., Rosbjerg, D., and Jun, X., eds., Regional Management of Water Resources: Iahs Publication, p. 199-205.
  49. Velazquez, J.A., Schmid, J., Ricard, S., Muerth, M.J., St-Denis, B.G., Minville, M., Chaumont, D., Caya, D., Ludwig, R., and Turcotte, R., 2013, An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 17, p. 565-578.
  50. Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., Lawrence, D.S., Bärlund, I., Ekholm, P., Lepistö, A., Yli-Halla, M., Rankinen, K., Granlund, K., Durand, P., and Kaste, Ø., 2009, The Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus (INCA-P), a new structure to simulate particulate and soluble phosphorus transport in European catchments, Deliverable 185 to the EU Euro-limpacs project, UCL, London, pp 67.
  51. Wade, A.J., Durand, P., Beaujouan, V., Wessel, W.W., Raat, K.J., Whitehead, P.G., Butterfield, D., Rankinen, K., and Lepisto, A., 2002, A nitrogen model for European catchments: INCA, new model structure and equations: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 6, p. 559-582.
  52. Whitehead, P.G., Barbour, E., Futter, M.N., Sarkar, S., Rodda, H., Caesar, J., Butterfield, D., Jin, L., Sinha, R., Nicholls, R., and Salehin, M., 2015a, Impacts of climate change and socio-economic scenarios on flow and water quality of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river systems: low flow and flood statistics: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 17, p. 1057-1069.
  53. Whitehead, P.G., Butterfield, D., and Wade, A.J., 2009, Simulating metals and mine discharges in river basins using a new integrated catchment model for metals: pollution impacts and restoration strategies in the Aries-Mures river system in Transylvania, Romania: Hydrology Research, v. 40, p. 323-346.
  54. Whitehead, P.G., Jin, L., Baulch, H.M., Butterfield, D.A., Oni, S.K., Dillon, P.J., Futter, M., Wade, A.J., North, R., O'Connor, E.M., and Jarvie, H.P., 2011, Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada: Science of the Total Environment, v. 412, p. 315-323.
  55. Whitehead, P.G., Sarkar, S., Jin, L., Futter, M.N., Caesar, J., Barbour, E., Butterfield, D., Sinha, R., Nicholls, R., Hutton, C., and Leckie, H.D., 2015b, Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh: Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts, v. 17, p. 1082-1097.
  56. Whitehead, P.G., Wilson, E.J., and Butterfield, D., 1998a, A semi-distributed Integrated Nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in Catchments (INCA): Part I - model structure and process equations: Science of the Total Environment, v. 210, p. 547-558.
  57. Whitehead, P.G., Wilson, E.J., Butterfield, D., and Seed, K., 1998b, A semi-distributed integrated flow and nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in catchments (INCA): Part II - application to large river basins in south Wales and eastern England: Science of the Total Environment, v. 210, p. 559-583.